Knockouts · AI vs Reality
Before a ball was kicked, the AI predicted the entire bracket. Reality reshuffled the draw, so most of those ties never happened — so at the start of each round it also made a fresh call on the real matchup. Every tie below shows both: the pre-tournament call and the round-by-round re-prediction — each graded against the result. Where the draw broke differently, the pre-tournament line instead shows how far it had each side going.
Right team through this round: 25/32 ties.
Of those, it had already nailed the exact matchup for 9 before kickoff — and called 8 of them right.
Round of 32
CanadaCanada's explosive attack — which plundered 8 goals in the group stage — is simply too potent for a South African backline that conceded 3 times in the groups. Jonathan David and Alphonso Davies provide the cutting edge to pull away after a competitive first half, with RSA's resilience limiting the damage but never quite threatening an upset.
ParaguayGermany's clinical attack — which plundered 10 goals in the group stage — proves too much for a Swedish defence that conceded 7, with Florian Wirtz and Kai Havertz pulling the strings in midfield to control the tempo. Sweden's goal-threat up front (Isak, Gyökeres) earns them a consolation, but Nagelsmann's structured high-press limits their creativity and the Swedes, entering as a third-place qualifier, lack the defensive solidity to contain Germany's width and pace for a full 90 minutes.
MoroccoIts pre-tournament call (Morocco) was right — the re-pick missed.
Netherlands' potent attack — led by Gakpo and Depay — proved too much for a disciplined but stretched Morocco backline, with the Dutch clinical efficiency in front of goal being the decisive factor. Morocco's defensive resilience kept them in the tie until the final quarter, but the Atlas Lions' attacking output (6 goals in the group stage) couldn't quite match the Dutch firepower on the night.
JapanBrazil's relentless attacking trident — backed by Ancelotti's structured yet fluid system — overwhelms Japan's high defensive line, with Vinicius Jr. and Rodrygo exploiting the space behind Moriyasu's press. Japan's clinical counter-attacking threat earns them a consolation, but Brazil's superior squad depth and dominant group-stage form (7 goals scored, 1 conceded) prove too much over 90 minutes.
SwedenFrance's perfect group-stage form — 9 points, 10 goals scored, just 2 conceded — underlines a squad brimming with world-class talent from Mbappé to Camavinga, far too much firepower for a Paraguay side that scraped through as a third-place qualifier with a -2 goal difference. Les Bleus' high press and clinical finishing should overwhelm Alfaro's defensively fragile back line well before the final whistle.
NorwayNorway's potent attack — spearheaded by Erling Haaland and backed by a goal-hungry group stage (8 goals scored) — proves too much for an Ivory Coast defence that already conceded twice in the groups. Haaland's movement and physicality repeatedly troubles CIV's centre-backs, and Norway's greater European top-flight quality in midfield allows them to control the tempo and seal a deserved last-16 victory.
EcuadorMexico's perfect group-stage run — three wins, six goals scored, none conceded — signals a side firing on all cylinders under Aguirre's disciplined, high-press system, and they face an Ecuador outfit that only scraped through as a third-place qualifier with a -0 goal difference and inconsistency across their three matches. El Tri's superior momentum, home-continent crowd support across North America, and Ecuador's vulnerability on the counter make a comfortable Mexican victory the most likely outcome.
DR CongoEngland's superior squad depth, Tuchel's well-drilled defensive structure and their clinical group-stage attack (6 goals in 3 games) prove too much for a DR Congo side that scraped through as a third-place qualifier. The Leopards' leaky defence — conceding 3 in the groups — is ruthlessly exposed by the pace and movement of Saka, Bellingham and Foden, with England cruising to a comfortable victory.
Bosnia and HerzegovinaThe USA, buoyed by home-crowd energy and a dominant group stage (8 goals scored, top of Group D), have too much athleticism and pressing intensity for a Bosnia side that leaked 6 goals in the groups and scraped through as a third-place qualifier. Edin Džeko's threat keeps it nervy, but Pochettino's well-drilled high line and clinical finishing — led by the likes of Christian Pulisic — prove the difference in a hard-fought 2–1 American victory.
SenegalBelgium's superior squad depth — led by De Bruyne's creativity and Lukaku's finishing — proved too much for an Algeria side that leaked seven goals in the group stage and qualified as a fortunate third-place team. The Red Devils controlled the tie through midfield dominance, converting two clean chances to advance comfortably.
CroatiaRonaldo and Bruno Fernandes give Portugal the creative edge to unlock a Croatian midfield that, without the retired Modrić at his peak, is a step below its 2022 vintage. Croatia's leaky group stage (5 goals conceded) leaves them vulnerable to Portugal's clinical attack, and Martínez's side edges a competitive but ultimately one-sided-enough contest to advance in 90 minutes.
AustriaSpain's suffocating possession game and a near-perfect group stage (5 goals conceded zero) expose Austria's defensive fragility — their 6 goals conceded in the group stage signals vulnerability against elite pressing sides. Yamal and Nico Williams stretch Rangnick's high line, with Morata and Pedri combining to put the tie to bed before the hour mark.
AlgeriaSwitzerland's group-stage dominance — topping Group B with seven points and a +4 goal difference — underlines a well-organised, high-pressing side under Yakin that should comfortably outclass a Senegal team that scraped through as a third-place qualifier with a -2 goal difference. Senegal's attacking firepower keeps them dangerous on the counter, but the Swiss defensive structure and superior fitness levels prove the decisive factor, with a second-half strike sealing a 2–1 win.
Cape VerdeArgentina were ruthless in the group stage, scoring 8 goals in three wins, and their world-class attacking trio of Messi, Álvarez and Di María is simply too much for a Cape Verde side that failed to win a single group game. Cape Verde's disciplined low-block kept them level in all three group draws but offered little going forward, and Argentina's pressing and quality in the final third will unlock and overwhelm them with relative comfort.
GhanaColombia's creative midfield engine — anchored by Jefferson Lerma and driven by James Rodríguez — proved too fluid for a Ghana side that scraped through as a third-place qualifier with a negative goal difference. Néstor Lorenzo's well-drilled defensive shape denied the Black Stars any meaningful transition opportunities, while Luis Díaz's pace on the left repeatedly exposed Ghana's right flank to seal a comfortable Colombian victory.
EgyptEgypt's superior group-stage form — unbeaten with five goals scored — and the creative threat of Mohamed Salah give them the edge over a workmanlike Australia side that struggled to convert chances in the group phase. The Socceroos' defensive solidity keeps them in it until the hour mark, but Egypt's clinical finishing ultimately proves the difference.
Round of 16
FranceFrance's imperious group stage — 10 goals scored, zero dropped points — underlines a squad firing on all cylinders, with Mbappé, Griezmann and a deep midfield far outclassing a Paraguay side that scraped through as a third-place team with a negative goal difference. Alfaro's men will defend resolutely and snatch a consolation, but Les Bleus' individual quality and tactical cohesion prove too much to contain over 90 minutes.
MoroccoMorocco's unbeaten group stage (7 pts, 6 goals scored) and Regragui's battle-hardened defensive structure — proven at Qatar 2022 — give the Atlas Lions a clear edge over a Canada side that was leaky at the back (3 goals conceded in 3 games) and inconsistent in attack. Sofyan Amrabat shuts down Canada's midfield engine, and a clinical Moroccan counter-attack — likely through Ziyech or En-Nesyri — proves the difference.
NorwayBrazil's defensive solidity — just 1 goal conceded in the group stage under Ancelotti's disciplined 4-3-3 — proves the decisive factor, suffocating Norway's high-octane but erratic attack (8 goals scored but 7 conceded). Vinícius Jr. and Rodrygo exploit the spaces left by Norway's aggressive fullbacks to seal a comfortable Seleção victory.
EnglandMexico arrive as the tournament's feel-good story — a perfect 9-point group with zero goals conceded and a ferocious home crowd behind Edson Álvarez's disciplined block — but England simply carry more weapons: Kane, Bellingham and Saka against a defence yet to face an elite attack. Tuchel's side laboured past DR Congo, yet Rice's control of midfield and one moment of Bellingham quality see the visitors through a genuinely tight one, with Santiago Giménez punishing them once on the counter.
SpainSpain topped their group with a perfect defensive record and the most controlled midfield in the tournament — Rodri and Pedri dictating the tempo — which should just outlast a Portugal side that drew twice in the group stage. Lamine Yamal and Nico Williams stretch Roberto Martínez’s back line, and Spain’s greater balance edges a tight, high-quality Iberian derby 2–1.
BelgiumBelgium's ageing spine — De Bruyne and Witsel deep into their thirties — was stretched by Senegal's runners in a 3–2 escape, and the USA's transition game is exactly the wrong matchup for it: Pulisic, Weah and Balogun attacking the space behind Castagne with a home crowd roaring them on. Doku will trouble the American full-backs, but Pochettino's press forces the mistakes that decide it.
EgyptArgentina are four from four — a 9-point sweep of Group J at +7 and, even in the Cape Verde scare, three different scorers across 120 minutes with Messi opening it — the champions keep finding knockout answers. Egypt are unbeaten but have scored past the hour only once and needed penalties to shed Australia after 120 minutes; a second straight extra-time shift against Scaloni fresher rotation is one shift too many, and once the first goal lands the low block has no counter-punch: 2-0.
ColombiaColombia have conceded once in four games — the meanest defence left in the draw — and Luis Diaz running at the Swiss full-backs is the sharpest individual edge on the pitch, with James still supplying the final pass as he did for Arias winner against Ghana. Switzerland under Yakin are organised and dispatched Algeria without fuss, but they have not beaten a side of this defensive quality all tournament, and Lorenzo team edges a tight one 2-1.
Quarter-final
MoroccoMbappé's clinical edge and France's superior squad depth should just outlast Morocco's disciplined, counter-punching block, but Regragui's side — battle-tested from 2022 — will make it a nervy rematch until Griezmann or Mbappé breaks the deadlock late.
BelgiumSpain are the only side yet to concede a goal in the tournament — five wins, 9–0 on aggregate — and Rodri and Pedri's control should starve a Belgian attack that lives in transition, even with De Ketelaere arriving red-hot after his double against the USA. Belgium's ageing spine survived Senegal by a whisker and won't get that many openings here: Yamal against Theate's flank is where a tight quarter-final tips Spain's way, 2–1.
EnglandHaaland — four goals in two knockout games and the man who felled Brazil — keeps Norway alive in any tie, but their defence has shipped eight already and England's Bellingham–Rice axis controls midfield; with Kane's penalty-box precision, Tuchel's side should edge it even with Quansah suspended after his red card against Mexico.
SwitzerlandArgentina keep finding a way — a perfect group and back-to-back 3–2 knockout wins, the last a comeback from two down sealed by Messi and Fernández inside the final ten minutes — but they have conceded in both knockout rounds, exactly the crack a Murat Yakin side probes. Switzerland strangled Colombia for 120 minutes and have the tournament's most disciplined block, yet grinding shootout-deep against this front line is another ask entirely: Messi's movement between the lines unlocks it either side of the hour, Argentina 2–1.
Semi-final
SpainSpain will have the ball — they've conceded once all tournament and Merino keeps rescuing tight nights — but France don't need it: Mbappé has scored in every knockout round and Spain's high line is exactly the space he and Dembélé live in. A cagey 1–1 after ninety tips France's way in extra time, 2–1, just as the model's pre-tournament bracket called this exact semi-final.
ArgentinaBellingham is carrying England — both goals in the extra-time win over Norway — but Argentina are the tournament's best closers: a perfect group and three straight knockout wins, each sealed in the final ten minutes or beyond, the last finished off by Alvarez and Martínez deep in extra time against ten-man Switzerland. Level at 1–1 after ninety, Argentina's bench decides it again in extra time, 2–1, and the model's pre-tournament finalist marches on.
Third-place Play-off
EnglandThird-place games open up once the stakes drop, and France still carry the sharper attack: they hadn't conceded a knockout goal until Spain shut them out, while every England win in the bracket — Congo DR, Mexico, Norway — came by a single goal with Bellingham doing the carrying. Fresher legs and a point to prove after the 0–2 semi-final edge France through an open bronze final, 2–1.
Final
ArgentinaSpain arrive with seven straight wins and a single goal conceded all tournament, and Rodri and Pedri's control is exactly what Argentina's late-surge formula has never had to play through — all four of their knockout wins needed a final-ten-minutes rescue or extra time. Argentina's closers keep it level at 1–1 after ninety, but Spain's grip finally tells in extra time, 2–1, and the side that beat the model's predicted champion lifts the trophy.
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Every prediction, graded
Match scores, the group tables and the model's overall accuracy against the real results.