Prediction vs Result
7.0/10Correct result, off on the scoreline.
The AI report
The model read the outcome but not the detail. It had USA at 2–1, and USA duly came through — though the real scoreline settled at 4–1, good for 7.0/10.
On chances, the model penciled in 3 goals and the game delivered 5 — 2 more than it bargained for.
Bobadilla (og), Balogun, Balogun, Maurício and Reyna found the net, none of whom the model had on its teamsheet of scorers.
Cards ran 5Y/0R on the model's read against 6Y/0R in reality — a quieter night for the referee than projected.
Full comparison
| Metric | AI Predicted | Actual |
|---|---|---|
| Scoreline | 2–1 | 4–1 |
| Result | USA win | USA win |
| Total goals | 3 | 5 |
| Scorers | Christian Pulisic, Antonio Sanabria, Timothy Weah | Bobadilla (og), Balogun, Balogun, Maurício, Reyna |
| Yellow cards | 5 | 6 |
| Red cards | 0 | 0 |
| Possessionmodel only | 57%–43% | — |
| Shotsmodel only | 15–9 | — |
| Expected goals (xG)model only | 2.1–1.2 | — |
Score, scorers and cards are official; possession, shots and xG are the model’s projections (no official real counterpart).
Match Prediction
How the Model Sees It Unfold
- 21’
- 23’
- 37’
- 54’
- 62’
- 74’
- 78’
- 88’
Match Info
- Tournament
- FIFA World Cup 2026
- Stage
- Group Stage
- Date
- 13 Jun 2026
- Kick-off
- 01:00 (local)
- Stadium
- SoFi Stadium
- City
- Inglewood
Pressing & Heat Zones
USA concentrated attacks down both flanks, with Pulisic and Robinson combining on the left and Dest/Weah overloading the right. Central midfield dominance through Adams and McKennie.
Paraguay sat deep in a compact 5-3-2 block, ceding midfield but dangerous on the counter through Almirón and Enciso. Set-piece threat was their primary attacking outlet.
4-3-35-3-2
United States subs
Paraguay subs
USA's 2-1 win over Paraguay was a performance that blended tactical discipline with individual brilliance. Gregg Berhalter's 4-3-3 was designed to press high and exploit the flanks — Dest and Robinson provided relentless width, while Reyna's half-space positioning created consistent overloads. Tyler Adams was the engine in midfield, completing 91% of his passes and winning 6 duels, providing the defensive cover that allowed McKennie and Reyna to roam. Pulisic's penalty was clinical, but his all-round performance — 4 key passes, 3 dribbles completed — underlined why he remains the fulcrum of this team. Paraguay's 5-3-2 was well-organized and disciplined, and their set-piece equalizer exposed a recurring vulnerability for the USA at corners. Almirón's energy and Enciso's creativity gave the USA backline genuine problems in the second half. The decisive factor was Reyna's vision for Weah's winner — a moment of top-level European quality that separated the sides. The USA's high press (11 turnovers forced in the final third in the first half alone) was their most potent weapon, and if they can sustain that intensity, they will be a genuine threat in the knockout rounds. Paraguay, despite the defeat, showed they are compact and dangerous — their remaining group games will be fiercely contested.
- Pulisic converted from the spot after Júnior Alonso's clumsy foul — his 4th goal in 4 World Cup appearances.
- Paraguay equalised with a vintage South American set-piece: Almirón's whipped corner, Sanabria's glancing header.
- Reyna's 78' through-ball split Paraguay's high line and Weah finished calmly — his first World Cup goal.
- USA dominated the first half with 63% possession and 8 shots; Paraguay's block-heavy 5-3-2 frustrated the hosts until the hour mark.
- Gatito Fernández made a crucial fingertip save from McKennie's 67' header to keep Paraguay in the match.
- USA's high press forced 11 Paraguayan turnovers in the final third — the most in a single half at this tournament.
Match Report
Under the blazing Inglewood sun, a sold-out SoFi Stadium — 70,000 fans draped in red, white and blue — witnessed the United States open their home World Cup campaign with a hard-fought 2-1 victory over a resolute Paraguay side that refused to be a pushover.
First Half — Pulisic from the Spot The USA came out with intent, pressing high and moving the ball with a confidence that belied the occasion's weight. Giovanni Reyna, operating as the left-sided midfielder in a fluid 4-3-3, was the game's early metronome — drifting between lines, drawing fouls, and threading passes into the channels. The breakthrough arrived in the 21st minute when Júnior Alonso, already on a yellow card for a cynical challenge on Reyna, hauled down Ricardo Pepi inside the box as the PSV striker spun toward goal. Referee Stéphanie Frappart pointed to the spot without hesitation. Christian Pulisic stepped up, sent Gatito Fernández the wrong way, and wheeled away to the corner flag — SoFi erupting in a wall of noise. Paraguay were rattled but not broken. Almirón began to find pockets between Tyler Adams and McKennie, and Enciso's darting runs caused flickers of anxiety in the USA backline. The half ended 1-0, but Paraguay's 5-3-2 had already shown it could absorb pressure and threaten on the break.
Second Half — Sanabria Levels, Weah Wins It Paraguay emerged from the tunnel with renewed purpose. On 54 minutes, Almirón's delivery from a right-sided corner was whipped in with vicious pace — Antonio Sanabria, arriving late at the near post, got a glancing header that kissed the inside of the far post and nestled in the net. Matt Turner was rooted to his line. SoFi fell momentarily silent. The game was level, and suddenly the hosts looked vulnerable. Gregg Berhalter's men responded by throwing on Brenden Aaronson for Pepi, injecting urgency and directness. McKennie came agonisingly close in the 67th minute, his downward header from a Dest cross clawed away by a brilliant Fernández fingertip save. The winner, when it came, was a thing of beauty. In the 78th minute, Reyna — who had been the game's standout performer — received the ball in the right half-space, turned his marker with a single touch, and slipped a perfectly weighted through-ball into the channel. Weah, timing his run to perfection, was in behind the Paraguayan backline, took one touch to control, and slotted low past Fernández with his right foot. The stadium detonated. Paraguay pushed desperately in the final minutes, Balbuena earning a yellow for a cynical trip on Aaronson, but the USA backline — marshalled superbly by Richards and Trusty — held firm. The final whistle triggered scenes of jubilation: the host nation had opened with three vital points.