Prediction vs Result
1.0/10Result went the other way.
The AI report
Reality diverged from the script. The model leaned towards Spain (4–0), but it ended level 0–0 — 1.0/10 on the night.
On chances, the model penciled in 4 goals and the game delivered 0 — 4 fewer than projected.
Cards ran 4Y/0R on the model's read against 2Y/0R in reality — a quieter night for the referee than projected.
Full comparison
| Metric | AI Predicted | Actual |
|---|---|---|
| Scoreline | 4–0 | 0–0 |
| Result | Spain win | Draw |
| Total goals | 4 | 0 |
| Scorers | Lamine Yamal, Dani Olmo, Mikel Oyarzabal, Nico Williams | None |
| Yellow cards | 4 | 2 |
| Red cards | 0 | 0 |
| Possessionmodel only | 68%–32% | — |
| Shotsmodel only | 19–4 | — |
| Expected goals (xG)model only | 3.2–0.3 | — |
Score, scorers and cards are official; possession, shots and xG are the model’s projections (no official real counterpart).
Match Prediction
How the Model Sees It Unfold
- 14’
- 28’
- 33’
- 44’
- 54’
- 61’
- 71’
- 78’
Match Info
- Tournament
- FIFA World Cup 2026
- Stage
- Group Stage
- Date
- 15 Jun 2026
- Kick-off
- 16:00 (local)
- Stadium
- Mercedes-Benz Stadium
- City
- Atlanta
Pressing & Heat Zones
Spain's activity concentrated in the final third and wide channels, with Yamal and Williams burning the flanks
Cape Verde pinned deep, activity clustered around their own penalty area with rare counter-attacking forays
4-3-34-4-2
Spain subs
Cape Verde subs
Spain were simply in a different stratosphere to Cape Verde. De la Fuente's 4-3-3 pressed high and recycled possession with ruthless efficiency, exploiting the wide channels through Yamal and Williams — two of the most electrifying forwards at this tournament. Rodri's role as the deep-lying pivot was critical: he screened the back four, dictated tempo, and prevented Cape Verde from ever building momentum in transition. The Blue Sharks' 4-4-2 compact block held for roughly 20 minutes before Spain's quality overwhelmed it. The red card for Monteiro was the final nail in the coffin. For Cape Verde, their World Cup debut was a harsh lesson in the gap between AFCON-level football and the elite of international football. For Spain, this is a statement: they are organised, deep in quality, and tactically flexible — genuine contenders for the title.
- Spain registered 68% possession — their tiki-taka DNA fully intact under De la Fuente.
- Lamine Yamal (18) became the youngest Spanish scorer in World Cup history with his 14th-minute opener.
- Rodri completed 97 of 103 attempted passes (94.2%) — a midfield stranglehold.
- Jamiro Monteiro's double yellow (54') left Cape Verde with 10 men for the final 36 minutes, effectively ending the contest.
- Nico Williams created 4 chances and scored 1 goal — the most direct threat on the night.
- Cape Verde's xG of 0.28 reflects how rarely they threatened; their single shot on target was comfortable for Simón.
- Spain's 4-0 margin is their joint-biggest opening World Cup win since 2010.
Match Report
Under the blazing Atlanta sun at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Spain delivered a masterclass in controlled dominance to open their World Cup 2026 Group H campaign with a commanding 4-0 victory over debutants Cape Verde.
Luis de la Fuente's side wasted no time asserting their authority. In the 14th minute, Pedri threaded a perfectly weighted through-ball into the channel, and Lamine Yamal — the 18-year-old Barcelona sensation — cut inside Logan Costa with a shimmy that left the Villarreal defender flat-footed before curling a left-footed effort into the far corner. The crowd of 71,000 erupted.
Cape Verde, to their credit, attempted to press high in the opening exchanges, but Rodri's metronomic presence at the base of Spain's midfield suffocated every transition. By the half-hour mark, the Blue Sharks were retreating in banks of four, and Logan Costa earned a yellow card for a cynical trip on Nico Williams as Spain threatened to cut through at will.
The second goal arrived on 33 minutes — a thing of beauty. Nico Williams received a flick-on from Fabián Ruiz on the left, drove at pace past Steven Moreira, and pulled a low cross to the near post where Dani Olmo arrived on cue to side-foot home. Vozinha, the Cape Verde goalkeeper, had no chance.
Gavi picked up a caution just before the break for a petulant challenge on Deroy Duarte, the one blemish on an otherwise imperious first-half display. Spain went into the tunnel 2-0 up with an xG of 2.1 to Cape Verde's 0.09.
The second half was a formality. Jamiro Monteiro — already on a yellow — fouled Dani Olmo inside the box in the 54th minute, earning his second caution and a red card. With Cape Verde reduced to ten men, Mikel Oyarzabal, introduced as a substitute, coolly dispatched the resulting penalty in the 61st minute, sending Vozinha the wrong way.
Spain managed the game expertly thereafter, rotating possession with their trademark fluency. The fourth goal came in the 78th minute: Fabián Ruiz picked out Nico Williams in behind the Cape Verde backline with a delicious diagonal, and the Athletic Bilbao winger finished emphatically low past Vozinha to cap a superb personal performance.
Cape Verde's only moment of note was a speculative long-range effort from Ryan Mendes in the 68th minute that Unai Simón gathered comfortably. The Blue Sharks — making their World Cup debut — were simply outclassed in every department. Spain, meanwhile, look every inch the tournament contenders they were billed as.