Prediction vs Result
2.0/10Result went the other way.
The AI report
Reality diverged from the script. The model leaned towards IR Iran (2–0), but it ended level 2–2 — 2.0/10 on the night.
On chances, the model penciled in 2 goals and the game delivered 4 — 2 more than it bargained for.
Just, Rezaeian, Just and Mohebi found the net, none of whom the model had on its teamsheet of scorers.
Cards ran 4Y/0R on the model's read against 1Y/0R in reality — a quieter night for the referee than projected.
Full comparison
| Metric | AI Predicted | Actual |
|---|---|---|
| Scoreline | 2–0 | 2–2 |
| Result | IR Iran win | Draw |
| Total goals | 2 | 4 |
| Scorers | Mehdi Taremi, Ali Alipour | Just, Rezaeian, Just, Mohebi |
| Yellow cards | 4 | 1 |
| Red cards | 0 | 0 |
| Possessionmodel only | 56%–44% | — |
| Shotsmodel only | 15–7 | — |
| Expected goals (xG)model only | 2.3–0.5 | — |
Score, scorers and cards are official; possession, shots and xG are the model’s projections (no official real counterpart).
Match Prediction
How the Model Sees It Unfold
- 23’
- 34’
- 55’
- 67’
- 71’
- 82’
Match Info
- Tournament
- FIFA World Cup 2026
- Stage
- Group Stage
- Date
- 16 Jun 2026
- Kick-off
- 01:00 (local)
- Stadium
- SoFi Stadium
- City
- Inglewood
Pressing & Heat Zones
Iran concentrated attacks down both flanks, with Jahanbakhsh dominant on the left and Mohammadi overlapping on the right. Central midfield control through Ezatolahi.
New Zealand sat deep and compact in a mid-block, with Chris Wood isolated up front. Occasional counter-attacks through the right channel via Garbett.
4-3-34-4-2
Iran subs
Iran were the superior side in every measurable dimension. Coach Queiroz's 4-3-3 gave them the width to stretch New Zealand's flat 4-4-2, and the combination of Jahanbakhsh's dribbling threat and Taremi's intelligent movement in the channel was consistently too much for Boxall and Bindon to handle. Ezatolahi's screening role was critical — he made 6 ball recoveries and completed 89% of his passes, giving Iran a platform to dominate the second line. New Zealand's only credible attacking threat came through Sarpreet Singh's creativity in pockets, but without a second striker to partner Wood effectively, they lacked the firepower to trouble Beiranvand. The 2-0 scoreline flatters New Zealand slightly — Iran had chances for a third through Alipour and substitute Eckert. Iran will be confident heading into their next group fixture; New Zealand must regroup quickly if they are to avoid an early exit.
- Mehdi Taremi registered a goal and a key pass — his link-up play with Jahanbakhsh was the decisive attacking axis for Iran.
- Iran's xG of 2.31 vs New Zealand's 0.54 reflects the gulf in attacking quality between the two sides.
- New Zealand's mid-block held for 22 minutes but was undone by Jahanbakhsh's individual quality in the build-up to the opener.
- Chris Wood was isolated throughout — he received just 14 touches in the first half, the fewest of any outfield starter.
- Iran's 56% possession and 82% pass accuracy underline their technical superiority in this Group G opener.
- Four yellow cards — all for fouls or retaliation — signal the physical edge New Zealand attempted to impose.
Match Report
Under the blazing Inglewood sun at SoFi Stadium, Iran delivered a composed and professional Group G victory over a resolute but outclassed New Zealand side, winning 2-0 in front of a passionate crowd swelled by the Iranian diaspora.
First Half — Taremi breaks the deadlock (23') Iran controlled the tempo from the first whistle, with Saeid Ezatolahi anchoring the midfield and allowing Saman Ghoddos and Mohammad Mohebi to push forward. New Zealand's 4-4-2 mid-block held firm for the opening quarter-hour, Chris Wood pressing high to disrupt Iran's build-up but finding little support. The breakthrough came in the 23rd minute: Alireza Jahanbakhsh received the ball wide on the left, skipped past Tim Payne with a sharp inside cut, and slid a perfectly weighted through-ball into the penalty area for Mehdi Taremi. The Olympiacos striker took one touch to set himself and drilled a low finish past Max Crocombe at the near post — a goal of real Premier League-quality pedigree. New Zealand responded with physicality; Michael Boxall earned a yellow card in the 34th minute for a cynical foul on Taremi as he threatened to break again.
Second Half — Alipour heads home (71') Iran emerged from the break with the same intent. Ezatolahi was cautioned in the 55th minute for a late challenge on Joe Bell, who himself was booked twelve minutes later for retaliating with an elbow on Mohebi. The All Whites' best moment came around the hour mark when Sarpreet Singh drove forward and played in Elijah Just, whose low shot was palmed away comfortably by Alireza Beiranvand. Iran doubled their lead in the 71st minute through a set-piece routine: Milad Mohammadi whipped in a precise left-footed cross from the left flank, and Ali Alipour rose highest at the back post to power a header beyond Crocombe. New Zealand pushed bodies forward in desperation, and Marko Stamenić was booked for a frustrated foul in the 82nd minute as Iran comfortably saw out the game. Iran's 2-0 win is a statement of intent in Group G.