Prediction vs Result
2.0/10Result went the other way.
The AI report
Reality diverged from the script. The model leaned towards Belgium (3–1), but it ended level 1–1 — 2.0/10 on the night.
On chances, the model penciled in 4 goals and the game delivered 2 — 2 fewer than projected.
Ashour and Hany (og) found the net, none of whom the model had on its teamsheet of scorers.
Cards ran 5Y/0R on the model's read against 4Y/0R in reality — a quieter night for the referee than projected.
Full comparison
| Metric | AI Predicted | Actual |
|---|---|---|
| Scoreline | 3–1 | 1–1 |
| Result | Belgium win | Draw |
| Total goals | 4 | 2 |
| Scorers | Kevin De Bruyne, Mohamed Salah, Romelu Lukaku, Leandro Trossard | Ashour, Hany (og) |
| Yellow cards | 5 | 4 |
| Red cards | 0 | 0 |
| Possessionmodel only | 62%–38% | — |
| Shotsmodel only | 17–7 | — |
| Expected goals (xG)model only | 2.8–1.0 | — |
Score, scorers and cards are official; possession, shots and xG are the model’s projections (no official real counterpart).
Match Prediction
How the Model Sees It Unfold
- 18’
- 31’
- 34’
- 45’
- 55’
- 61’
- 74’
- 78’
- 83’
Match Info
- Tournament
- FIFA World Cup 2026
- Stage
- Group Stage
- Date
- 15 Jun 2026
- Kick-off
- 19:00 (local)
- Stadium
- Lumen Field
- City
- Seattle
Pressing & Heat Zones
Belgium dominated the right half-space and final third, with De Bruyne and Doku combining repeatedly down the right flank.
Egypt sat deep and compact, with activity concentrated in their own half. Salah's isolated bursts were the primary threat on the right channel.
4-3-34-2-3-1
Belgium subs
Egypt subs
Belgium's 4-3-3 was perfectly calibrated to exploit Egypt's narrow 4-2-3-1 block. De Bruyne's roaming role between the lines — drifting right to combine with Castagne and Doku — created a consistent overload that Egypt's double pivot of Ashour and Fathy could not contain. Onana provided the defensive anchor that freed Tielemans and De Bruyne to push forward, while Lukaku's physical presence stretched Egypt's centre-backs vertically, opening channels for the wide forwards. Egypt's best moments came on the counter through Salah, but Belgium's high defensive line was disciplined enough to keep him largely isolated. The introduction of De Ketelaere for Doku was tactically astute — his link-play between the lines unlocked the third goal and signalled Belgium's squad depth. Egypt will need to be far more compact and clinical if they are to progress from this group.
- De Bruyne registered a goal and an assist, completing 91% of his 67 attempted passes — a controlling masterclass.
- Salah's penalty was Egypt's only shot on target in the first half; he finished with 3 key chances created despite limited service.
- Doku attempted 9 dribbles, completing 6 — the most of any player on the pitch, constantly destabilising Egypt's left side.
- Belgium's xG of 2.81 vs Egypt's 0.97 underlines the one-sided nature of the contest despite the half-time scoreline.
- Lukaku's header was his 72nd international goal, moving him to within one of the all-time Belgian record.
- Egypt collected 5 yellow cards — a sign of the discipline strain caused by Belgium's relentless pressing and ball movement.
- Belgium's 62% possession and 87% pass accuracy reflect a side comfortable dictating tempo at the highest level.
Match Report
A sun-drenched Lumen Field was treated to a masterclass in European quality as Belgium dismantled a resilient but outclassed Egypt side 3–1 in their Group G opener. The Red Devils were dominant from the first whistle, with Kevin De Bruyne orchestrating proceedings from deep right midfield and Jérémy Doku terrorising Ramy Rabia down the left touchline.
Belgium broke the deadlock in the 18th minute through a moment of trademark brilliance. Doku collected a long switch from Amadou Onana on the left, drove infield past two defenders, and slid a perfectly weighted through-ball into the path of De Bruyne, who arrived late into the box and curled a composed finish into the far corner past El Shenawy. Lumen Field erupted.
Egypt hit back against the run of play. In the 31st minute, Emam Ashour was booked for a cynical foul on Tielemans, but it was a moment of rashness from Zeno Debast — a clumsy challenge on Omar Marmoush in the box — that handed Egypt a lifeline. Mohamed Salah stepped up with characteristic ice-cold authority, sending Courtois the wrong way from the spot. 1–1 at the break, and Egypt had reason for cautious optimism.
The second half told a different story. Belgium re-emerged with renewed urgency, and on 61 minutes, Romelu Lukaku reasserted his authority. De Bruyne whipped in a pinpoint cross from the right channel, and Lukaku — rising above Mohamed Hany — powered a header into the top corner. It was the kind of goal that reminded the world why Belgium's golden generation, even in its twilight, remains formidable.
Charles De Ketelaere, introduced in the 65th minute for the tireless Doku, immediately injected fresh creativity. His delicate reverse pass in the 78th minute found Leandro Trossard cutting in from the left, who took one touch and rifled a low drive across El Shenawy and into the far post. Game over. Egypt, to their credit, never stopped working — Salah remained a constant threat and Marmoush showed flashes of his Manchester City form — but the gulf in class was ultimately decisive. Belgium march into the group stage with three points and a statement performance.