Prediction vs Result
8.0/10Correct result, off on the scoreline.
The AI report
The model read the outcome but not the detail. It had Norway at 1–3, and Norway duly came through — though the real scoreline settled at 1–4, good for 8.0/10.
On chances, the model penciled in 4 goals and the game delivered 5 — 1 more than it bargained for.
Haaland, Hussein, Haaland, Østigård and Hussein (og) found the net, and it correctly tipped Haaland and Haaland to score.
Cards ran 4Y/1R on the model's read against 1Y/0R in reality — a quieter night for the referee than projected.
Full comparison
| Metric | AI Predicted | Actual |
|---|---|---|
| Scoreline | 1–3 | 1–4 |
| Result | Norway win | Norway win |
| Total goals | 4 | 5 |
| Scorers | Erling Haaland, Ali Al-Hamadi, Erling Haaland, Alexander Sørloth | Haaland, Hussein, Haaland, Østigård, Hussein (og) |
| Yellow cards | 4 | 1 |
| Red cards | 1 | 0 |
| Possessionmodel only | 36%–64% | — |
| Shotsmodel only | 9–19 | — |
| Expected goals (xG)model only | 1.0–3.4 | — |
Score, scorers and cards are official; possession, shots and xG are the model’s projections (no official real counterpart).
Match Prediction
How the Model Sees It Unfold
- 14’
- 34’
- 38’
- 52’
- 57’
- 63’
- 74’
- 78’
- 88’
Match Info
- Tournament
- FIFA World Cup 2026
- Stage
- Group Stage
- Date
- 16 Jun 2026
- Kick-off
- 22:00 (local)
- Stadium
- Gillette Stadium
- City
- Foxborough
Pressing & Heat Zones
Iraq concentrated in their own half, with limited forays forward through the right channel
Norway dominated the final third, with Ødegaard and Haaland creating a central overload
4-3-34-2-3-1
Iraq subs
Norway subs
Norway were the dominant force from the first whistle at Gillette Stadium, deploying their trademark high press and direct vertical play to suffocate an Iraq side that struggled to build out from the back. Erling Haaland was unplayable in the first half — his opening goal, a clinical near-post finish after Ødegaard slid a perfectly weighted through ball between the Iraqi centre-backs, set the tone. Iraq showed admirable grit and pulled level on the stroke of half-time through Ali Al-Hamadi's powerful header from a Zidane Iqbal corner, briefly threatening an upset. But Norway reasserted control within twelve minutes of the restart when Akam Hashim's clumsy challenge on Sørloth inside the box gave Haaland the chance to convert from the spot. Sørloth then put the game to bed on 78 minutes, latching onto another incisive Ødegaard pass and finishing low across Fahad Talib. Iraq's discipline crumbled in the closing stages, with Manaf Younis dismissed for a reckless lunge. A comfortable, professional Norway victory that announces them as serious Group I contenders.
- Haaland's brace (1 open play, 1 pen) gave Norway a commanding platform — his 14th & 15th World Cup qualifying/finals goals in the cycle.
- Ødegaard registered two assists, pulling strings in the half-spaces and dictating Norway's tempo throughout.
- Iraq's high defensive line was repeatedly exposed in behind by Haaland and Sørloth's movement.
- Ali Al-Hamadi's 38th-minute header kept Iraq alive briefly, silencing the Foxborough crowd before the break.
- Norway's xG of 3.41 vs Iraq's 0.98 underlines the gulf in class — Iraq's goal came against the run of play.
- Manaf Younis's late red card (88') was a fitting summary of Iraq's disciplinary struggles under sustained pressure.
Match Report
GILLETTE STADIUM, FOXBOROUGH — GROUP I | IRAQ 1–3 NORWAY
A sun-drenched afternoon in Massachusetts delivered exactly what the pre-match billing suggested: a Norway side bristling with world-class talent dismantling a spirited but outgunned Iraq team in front of a sold-out Gillette Stadium.
First Half — Norway Strike Early, Iraq Hit Back Norway wasted no time imposing themselves. On 14 minutes, Martin Ødegaard received the ball in the right half-space, took one touch to set his body, and threaded a laser-guided pass through the gap between Hussein Ali and Akam Hashim. Erling Haaland — already at full sprint — collected it, opened his body, and slotted low past Fahad Talib at the near post. 1–0, and the tone was set.
Iraq refused to buckle. Zidane Iqbal, the Manchester City academy product now at Utrecht, was the Lions of Mesopotamia's creative heartbeat, probing and pressing with energy beyond his years. His 34th-minute corner, whipped in with pace, found Ali Al-Hamadi rising highest at the back post — a thunderous header that gave Nyland no chance. 1–1, and Gillette erupted in surprise. Akam Hashim had picked up a yellow card moments earlier for a cynical foul on Haaland, a sign of the defensive strain Iraq were under.
Second Half — Haaland's Penalty, Sørloth Seals It Iraq emerged from the break with renewed intent, but Norway quickly reasserted control. On 52 minutes, Zaid Tahseen was booked for a mistimed challenge, and seven minutes later the decisive moment arrived: Sørloth's intelligent run drew a clumsy lunge from Akam Hashim inside the area, and referee pointed to the spot. Haaland — ice-cold, as always — sent Talib the wrong way. 2–1.
Norway's press grew relentless. Sander Berge picked up a yellow for a cynical midfield foul on 63 minutes, but Norway barely missed a beat. Ibrahim Bayesh was cautioned on 74 minutes as Iraq's discipline frayed under the sustained pressure. Four minutes later, Ødegaard delivered his second assist of the afternoon — a sumptuous through ball that split the defence and found Sørloth in behind; the Atlético Madrid striker took a touch and rolled it into the far corner. 3–1, game over.
The final whistle was preceded by Manaf Younis receiving a straight red for a reckless lunge in the 88th minute — a sorry end to a difficult afternoon for Iraq. Norway march on with three points, with Haaland and Ødegaard already looking like the most dangerous partnership at this World Cup.