

Prediction vs Result
8.0/10Correct result, off on the scoreline.
The AI report
The model read the outcome but not the detail. It had USA at 2–1, and USA duly came through — though the real scoreline settled at 2–0, good for 8.0/10.
On chances, the model penciled in 3 goals and the game delivered 2 — 1 fewer than projected.
Burgess (og) and Freeman found the net, none of whom the model had on its teamsheet of scorers.
Cards ran 4Y/0R on the model's read against 7Y/0R in reality — a quieter night for the referee than projected.
Full comparison
| Metric | AI Predicted | Actual |
|---|---|---|
| Scoreline | 2–1 | 2–0 |
| Result | USA win | USA win |
| Total goals | 3 | 2 |
| Scorers | Christian Pulisic, Jackson Irvine, Ricardo Pepi | Burgess (og), Freeman |
| Yellow cards | 4 | 7 |
| Red cards | 0 | 0 |
| Possessionmodel only | 56%–44% | — |
| Shotsmodel only | 15–9 | — |
| Expected goals (xG)model only | 2.3–1.0 | — |
Score, scorers and cards are official; possession, shots and xG are the model’s projections (no official real counterpart).
Match Prediction
How the Model Sees It Unfold
- 22’
- 23’
- 44’
- 57’
- 63’
- 78’
- 81’
Match Info
- Tournament
- FIFA World Cup 2026
- Stage
- Group Stage
- Date
- 19 Jun 2026
- Kick-off
- 19:00 (local)
- Stadium
- Lumen Field
- City
- Seattle
Pressing & Heat Zones
USA concentrated attacks down the left channel and central corridor, with Pulisic drifting inside from the left and Dest overlapping on the right.
Australia sat in a compact mid-block, transitioning quickly through Leckie on the right and Mabil on the left, with set-piece threat through Souttar and Irvine.
4-3-34-4-2
United States subs
Australia subs
Christian Pulisic orchestrated a nervy but ultimately convincing USA victory on home soil at a raucous Lumen Field. The Milan forward was the game's central figure from the first whistle, drawing the foul from Harry Souttar in the 22nd minute — a clumsy challenge on Ricardo Pepi that earned the Australian centre-back a yellow card and handed Pulisic the chance to step up from the spot. He dispatched it with trademark composure, low and hard to Mathew Ryan's right, sending the Seattle crowd into raptures. Australia refused to fold. Gregg Berhalter's men had to weather a disciplined Socceroos mid-block, and Jackson Irvine — the St. Pauli captain — punished a lapse in USA's defensive shape on the hour mark, rising above Auston Trusty to power home Ajdin Hrustic's whipped corner. The equaliser silenced the stadium and injected genuine anxiety into the American camp. The response, however, was emphatic. Tyler Adams — imperious in the base of midfield — won the ball back in his own half and immediately fed Pulisic, who turned on the afterburners down the left channel. His low, driven cut-back found Pepi arriving at the far post, and the PSV striker finished first-time with clinical authority. Lumen Field erupted. Matt Turner was rarely tested but made one crucial save from Mohamed Touré late on to preserve the clean sheet. Australia's Mathew Ryan, by contrast, was outstanding in defeat, denying Giovanni Reyna twice in the second half to keep the scoreline respectable. USA take three vital points in Group D, while Australia must regroup ahead of a pivotal second fixture.
- Pulisic was directly involved in both USA goals — penalty conversion + decisive assist — logging a match-high 4 key passes.
- Harry Souttar's 22nd-minute foul on Pepi in the box was the turning point; the yellow card also hampered Australia's aerial dominance.
- USA's xG of 2.31 vs Australia's 1.04 reflects the home side's clear territorial and creative superiority.
- Jackson Irvine's towering header from a Hrustic corner was Australia's only shot on target in the first 70 minutes — a rare set-piece lifeline.
- Lumen Field's 12th-man atmosphere visibly lifted USA's press intensity, with 18 high turnovers won in the Australian half.
- Pepi's winner was his 3rd goal in his last 4 international appearances, underlining his status as USA's most clinical finisher.
Match Report
FULL TIME — USA 2–1 Australia | Lumen Field, Seattle
⚽ 23' PULISIC (PEN) — Souttar's clumsy challenge on Pepi in the box gifts the USA captain the spot-kick. Pulisic sends Ryan the wrong way. 1–0.
🟨 22' Souttar (AUS) — Foul on Pepi, penalty conceded. 🟨 44' McKennie (USA) — Late challenge on Metcalfe.
⚽ 57' IRVINE (AUS) — Hrustic's corner from the right is met by Irvine's thundering header. Turner had no chance. 1–1.
🟨 63' Metcalfe (AUS) — Cynical foul on Reyna to stop a counter.
⚽ 78' PEPI (USA) — Adams wins it back deep, feeds Pulisic on the left. The Milan man cuts inside and rolls a perfect low cut-back to Pepi, who finishes first-time at the far post. 2–1.
🟨 81' Degenek (AUS) — Foul on Weah as Australia chase the game.
USA claim a hard-fought opening Group D victory on home soil. Pulisic's brilliance and Pepi's clinical edge prove the difference.
