Prediction vs Result
0.0/10Result went the other way.
The AI report
Reality diverged from the script. The model leaned towards Uruguay (3–0), but it ended level 2–2 — 0.0/10 on the night.
On chances, the model penciled in 3 goals and the game delivered 4 — 1 more than it bargained for.
K. Pina, M. Araújo, Canobbio and Varela found the net, none of whom the model had on its teamsheet of scorers.
Cards ran 4Y/0R on the model's read against 4Y/0R in reality — a discipline read the model got about right.
Full comparison
| Metric | AI Predicted | Actual |
|---|---|---|
| Scoreline | 3–0 | 2–2 |
| Result | Uruguay win | Draw |
| Total goals | 3 | 4 |
| Scorers | Darwin Núñez, Giorgian de Arrascaeta, Darwin Núñez | K. Pina, M. Araújo, Canobbio, Varela |
| Yellow cards | 4 | 4 |
| Red cards | 0 | 0 |
| Possessionmodel only | 63%–37% | — |
| Shotsmodel only | 18–5 | — |
| Expected goals (xG)model only | 2.7–0.4 | — |
Score, scorers and cards are official; possession, shots and xG are the model’s projections (no official real counterpart).
Match Prediction
How the Model Sees It Unfold
- 18’
- 34’
- 47’
- 54’
- 71’
- 74’
- 76’
Match Info
- Tournament
- FIFA World Cup 2026
- Stage
- Group Stage
- Date
- 21 Jun 2026
- Kick-off
- 22:00 (local)
- Stadium
- Hard Rock Stadium
- City
- Miami Gardens
Pressing & Heat Zones
Uruguay dominated the final third, with heavy activity down both flanks and central overloads through Valverde and De Arrascaeta.
Cape Verde sat deep in a compact mid-block, concentrating activity in their own half with rare forays down the right channel.
4-3-34-4-2
Uruguay subs
Uruguay were simply a class above Cape Verde in every measurable dimension. Bielsa's 4-3-3 pressed with intensity in the middle third, forcing Cape Verde into long balls that Giménez and Araújo mopped up with ease. The key tactical battle was Valverde's freedom to roam as a box-to-box midfielder — he effectively acted as a second striker in transition, stretching Cape Verde's compact block horizontally until it broke. Cape Verde's 4-4-2 mid-block was disciplined for 15 minutes but lacked the athleticism to contain Núñez's runs in behind. Once the first goal arrived, the Blue Sharks had to open up, and Uruguay's quality in the half-spaces — De Arrascaeta and De la Cruz — was devastating. The penalty was a microcosm of Cape Verde's second-half problems: individual errors under sustained pressure. Uruguay look like a genuine dark-horse contender; Cape Verde's World Cup debut at this expanded tournament will require far more attacking output if they are to progress.
- Darwin Núñez brace (18', 76' pen) — his first World Cup goals, both finished with clinical composure
- Federico Valverde created 4 chances and covered 12.3 km — the engine of Uruguay's press and transition
- Cape Verde managed just 1 shot on target across 90 minutes; their xG of 0.38 was almost entirely from set-pieces
- Uruguay's 63% possession was their highest in a World Cup opener since 2010
- Logan Costa and Stopira both booked in a 3-minute spell — Cape Verde's discipline under pressure a concern
- De Arrascaeta's 54th-minute curler was the highest xG-overperforming goal of the match (xG: 0.14 → 1 goal)
- Uruguay's back four conceded 0 headed duels from set-pieces — Giménez and Araújo dominant in the air
Match Report
Under the blazing Miami sun at Hard Rock Stadium, Uruguay delivered a commanding Group H opener against a spirited but outclassed Cape Verde side, winning 3-0 to announce their World Cup credentials in emphatic fashion.
First Half — Núñez Breaks the Deadlock Uruguay controlled possession from the first whistle, Ugarte and Bentancur forming a composed double pivot that recycled the ball with authority. Cape Verde, organised in a deep 4-4-2 block, frustrated the Celeste for the opening quarter-hour — until Federico Valverde picked the lock. Cutting inside from the right, the Real Madrid midfielder threaded a perfectly weighted through-ball into the channel on 18 minutes, and Darwin Núñez — showing the explosive pace that made him a global name — burst clear of Logan Costa before slotting low past Vozinha. 1-0.
Cape Verde's best moment came on 28 minutes when Jovane Cabral drove at Ronald Araújo, but the Barcelona centre-back read the danger and snuffed it out. Jamiro Monteiro earned a yellow card on 34 minutes for a cynical foul on Valverde as Uruguay began to build momentum. The half ended 1-0, with Uruguay's xG of 1.42 to Cape Verde's 0.11 telling the full story.
Second Half — De Arrascaeta Seals It, Núñez Completes His Brace Marcel Bielsa's (notional) tactical adjustments at the break saw Nicolás de la Cruz introduced for Bentancur, adding more creativity in the half-spaces. The change paid immediate dividends. On 54 minutes, De la Cruz drifted inside from the left, drew two defenders, and slipped a disguised pass to De Arrascaeta, who took one touch and curled a gorgeous right-footed finish around Vozinha into the far corner. 2-0 — the Flamengo maestro at his imperious best.
Cape Verde grew increasingly desperate, and their discipline began to crack. Stopira (71') and Logan Costa (74') both collected yellows for cynical fouls as Uruguay threatened to run riot. On 74 minutes, Costa hauled down Núñez inside the area — the referee pointed to the spot without hesitation. Núñez stepped up himself, sent Vozinha the wrong way, and completed his brace. 3-0.
The final quarter-hour was a procession. Brian Rodríguez and Rodrigo Aguirre came on to give the starters a rest, and Cape Verde — to their credit — never stopped working, with Ryan Mendes forcing a sharp save from Rochet in the 84th minute, the only shot on target the Blue Sharks managed all evening.
Uruguay march into the group stage with maximum points, their attacking trident of Núñez, Valverde and De Arrascaeta looking ominously sharp. Cape Verde will need to regroup quickly if they are to challenge for a place in the knockout rounds.