Prediction vs Result
8.0/10Correct result, off on the scoreline.
The AI report
The model read the outcome but not the detail. It had Türkiye at 2–1, and Türkiye duly came through — though the real scoreline settled at 3–2, good for 8.0/10.
On chances, the model penciled in 3 goals and the game delivered 5 — 2 more than it bargained for.
Trusty, Güler, Kökcü, Berhalter and Ayhan found the net, and it correctly tipped Güler to score.
Cards ran 5Y/0R on the model's read against 1Y/0R in reality — a quieter night for the referee than projected.
Full comparison
| Metric | AI Predicted | Actual |
|---|---|---|
| Scoreline | 2–1 | 3–2 |
| Result | Türkiye win | Türkiye win |
| Total goals | 3 | 5 |
| Scorers | Arda Güler, Christian Pulisic, Kenan Yıldız | Trusty, Güler, Kökcü, Berhalter, Ayhan |
| Yellow cards | 5 | 1 |
| Red cards | 0 | 0 |
| Possessionmodel only | 54%–46% | — |
| Shotsmodel only | 15–11 | — |
| Expected goals (xG)model only | 2.3–1.5 | — |
Score, scorers and cards are official; possession, shots and xG are the model’s projections (no official real counterpart).
Match Prediction
How the Model Sees It Unfold
- Güler · Çalhanoğlu⚽23’
- 34’
- 51’
- 58’
- 67’
- 72’
- 76’
- 88’
Match Info
- Tournament
- FIFA World Cup 2026
- Stage
- Group Stage
- Date
- 26 Jun 2026
- Kick-off
- 02:00 (local)
- Stadium
- SoFi Stadium
- City
- Inglewood
Pressing & Heat Zones
Turkey concentrated activity through the central corridor and right half-space, with Güler's heat map peaking in the right channel between the lines.
USA's activity was wide and transitional — Pulisic and Weah created width, but the central zone was ceded to Turkey's midfield dominance.
4-2-3-14-3-3
Turkey subs
United States subs
Turkey edged a fiercely contested Group D opener at SoFi Stadium, with Arda Güler's genius proving the difference against a USA side that fought back bravely but ultimately ran out of answers. Vincenzo Montella set Turkey up in a fluid 4-2-3-1, with Hakan Çalhanoğlu anchoring deep and Güler given licence to roam behind lone striker Deniz Gül. The USA, missing the suspended Weston McKennie, asked Tyler Adams to carry an extra defensive burden alongside Malik Tillman in a 4-3-3 that looked slightly undercooked in the middle third. Turkey broke the deadlock on 23 minutes through a move of real quality: Çalhanoğlu played a disguised through-ball into the channel, and Güler — cutting inside from the right — curled a precise left-footed finish into the far corner past Matt Turner. The USA responded with energy, and Pulisic drew a foul from Ferdi Kadıoğlu inside the box just after the hour mark. The Milan forward stepped up himself and sent Turner's opposite number the wrong way to level at 1-1. The equaliser seemed to galvanise the hosts, but Turkey's double change on 68 minutes — introducing Barış Alper Yılmaz and İrfan Can Kahveci — injected fresh pace on the flanks. It was Güler, inevitably, who conjured the winner: a delicate reverse pass split the USA's back line on 76 minutes, and Kenan Yıldız, arriving late from the left, slid a composed finish under Turner. The USA pushed for an equaliser but found Merih Demiral and Çağlar Söyüncü resolute — if occasionally reckless — at the back. Turkey hold on for a vital three points in what promises to be a tight group.
- Arda Güler registered a goal and an assist — his creative brilliance was the decisive difference on the night.
- Turkey's high press yielded 7 ball recoveries in the USA's half, disrupting Pulisic's link-up play for long stretches.
- Christian Pulisic's penalty was his 5th goal in World Cup finals, underlining his status as the USA's talisman.
- The USA created 0 big chances from open play in the second half after Turkey's double substitution reshaped the midfield.
- Kenan Yıldız's 76th-minute winner was Turkey's first World Cup goal from a player born after 2000.
- SoFi Stadium's 70,000-strong crowd split evenly, creating an electric atmosphere that lifted both sides.
Match Report
FULL TIME — TURKEY 2-1 USA | SoFi Stadium, Inglewood
A sold-out SoFi Stadium witnessed a Group D thriller as Turkey claimed a statement opening-day victory over the host nation. Arda Güler, Real Madrid's mercurial playmaker, was simply unplayable at times — scoring, assisting, and leaving the USA defence in knots throughout a performance that will be replayed on highlight reels for years.
Turkey's opener arrived on 23 minutes and was a thing of beauty. Çalhanoğlu, imperious in his deep-lying role, spotted Güler's run and threaded a perfectly weighted pass through the lines. Güler took one touch, shifted onto his left foot, and curled the ball into the top-right corner — Turner rooted to the spot. SoFi's Turkish contingent erupted.
The USA regrouped and grew into the game. Pulisic was a constant menace, drifting between lines and dragging Demiral out of position. The equaliser came from the spot on 58 minutes after Kadıoğlu's clumsy challenge: Pulisic's penalty was ice-cold, low and to Turner's right, making it 1-1.
The game was finely poised until Turkey's bench changed it. Yılmaz and Kahveci brought directness and width, and on 76 minutes Güler produced the moment of the match — a no-look reverse pass that dissected the USA's flat back four. Yıldız, 20 years old and fearless, slid in to finish first time. 2-1. The USA threw bodies forward in the final ten minutes but Turkey's defensive resolve — just about — held firm. Three points and a statement made."