Paraguay's 4-4-2 proved tactically astute against Australia's 4-3-3. The key was Almirón and Sosa operating as narrow wide midfielders who could press Australia's centre-backs and then transition quickly — a structure that suffocated Irvine and Metcalfe in central areas. Paraguay's xG of 1.82 reflects genuine quality in the final third, particularly from set-pieces where Gómez and Sanabria posed aerial threats that Australia's back four — missing the suspended Souttar — struggled to handle. Australia's 52% possession was largely in non-threatening areas; their xG of 1.31 came almost entirely from the Hrustic free-kick and a handful of Mabil crosses. The Socceroos' high defensive line was exploited twice in the first half and will need adjustment for their next fixture. Paraguay's pressing intensity (PPDA ~8.2) was among the highest in the group stage opening round.

• Julio Enciso's 23rd-minute opener was Paraguay's first World Cup finals goal since 2010 — a moment of pure individual brilliance.
• Australia dominated possession (52%) but were blunt in the final third, mustering only 4 shots on target.
• Ajdin Hrustic's free-kick equaliser (57') was Australia's first World Cup goal since the 2022 round of 16.
• Sanabria's towering header from Sosa's cross proved decisive — Paraguay's aerial threat from set-pieces was a consistent danger all game.
• Miguel Almirón covered 12.4 km, the most of any outfield player, and was the creative heartbeat of Paraguay's press.
• Australia's high defensive line was exposed twice — Paraguay's pacey forwards ran in behind 6 times across 90 minutes.