Prediction vs Result
7.0/10Correct result, off on the scoreline.
The AI report
The model read the outcome but not the detail. It had Senegal at 3–0, and Senegal duly came through — though the real scoreline settled at 5–0, good for 7.0/10.
On chances, the model penciled in 3 goals and the game delivered 5 — 2 more than it bargained for.
Diarra, I. Sarr, P. Gueye, P. Gueye and I. Ndiaye found the net, and it correctly tipped I. Ndiaye to score.
Cards ran 4Y/0R on the model's read against 4Y/1R in reality — the referee reached for his pocket more often than the model foresaw.
Full comparison
| Metric | AI Predicted | Actual |
|---|---|---|
| Scoreline | 3–0 | 5–0 |
| Result | Senegal win | Senegal win |
| Total goals | 3 | 5 |
| Scorers | Sadio Mané, Nicolas Jackson, Iliman Ndiaye | Diarra, I. Sarr, P. Gueye, P. Gueye, I. Ndiaye |
| Yellow cards | 4 | 4 |
| Red cards | 0 | 1 |
| Possessionmodel only | 62%–38% | — |
| Shotsmodel only | 18–5 | — |
| Expected goals (xG)model only | 2.8–0.4 | — |
Score, scorers and cards are official; possession, shots and xG are the model’s projections (no official real counterpart).
Match Prediction
How the Model Sees It Unfold
- Mané · Matar Sarr⚽18’
- 34’
- 54’
- 61’
- 72’
- 78’
- 85’
Pressing & Heat Zones
Senegal dominated the final third, with wide overloads on both flanks and central penetration through Mané and Jackson.
Iraq were pinned back for long spells, with activity concentrated in their own half and limited forays down the left channel.
Senegal entered this Group I opener as heavy favourites despite the suspensions of Koulibaly and Gueye, and they delivered a composed, dominant performance at BMO Field. Head coach Aliou Cissé deployed a 4-3-3 that pressed Iraq high and suffocated their build-up from the first whistle. Pape Matar Sarr was the engine in midfield — covering ground, winning second balls and threading the pass that set Mané free for the opener on 18 minutes. Mané's run in behind Manaf Younis was perfectly timed, and his low finish past Fahad Talib was a reminder that, even at Al-Nassr, the Senegalese captain retains elite finishing instincts. Iraq tried to reorganise at half-time, pushing Zidane Iqbal higher, but Nicolas Jackson doubled the lead nine minutes into the second half, latching onto Ismaïla Sarr's driven cross from the right and converting with a composed side-foot. Iqbal picked up a yellow card in frustration shortly after, and Iraq's discipline began to fray. Iliman Ndiaye wrapped up the points on 78 minutes, collecting a reverse pass from Mané and curling a right-footed shot into the far corner — a goal that confirmed Senegal's status as genuine Group I contenders. Iraq showed glimpses of quality through Ali Al-Hamadi's hold-up play but were simply outclassed across every department. A 3-0 scoreline flatters Iraq slightly — Senegal could have had five.
- Sadio Mané, now 34, showed he still has the big-game gene — direct, sharp and unplayable in the first half.
- Nicolas Jackson's movement off Ismaïla Sarr's cross was clinical; his 12th international goal in 28 caps.
- Iraq's defensive line was exposed repeatedly in behind — Koulibaly's absence from SEN was barely felt given Iraq's limited attack.
- Zidane Iqbal was Iraq's only creative outlet but was isolated and booked before being withdrawn.
- Senegal's xG of 2.81 vs Iraq's 0.38 tells the full story — a dominant, professional Group I opener.
- BMO Field's 30,000 crowd was heavily pro-Senegal, creating a de-facto home atmosphere for the Lions of Teranga.
Match Report
BMO Field, Toronto — FIFA World Cup 2026, Group I, Matchday 1
A warm June evening in Toronto, and Senegal's Lions of Teranga roared. Despite the high-profile absences of Kalidou Koulibaly and Idrissa Gueye, Aliou Cissé's side were utterly dominant from the first whistle, dismantling Iraq 3-0 in a performance that sent an early statement to the rest of Group I.
18' — MANÉ OPENS THE FLOODGATES. Pape Matar Sarr, electric in the Senegal midfield, slid a perfectly-weighted through ball between Iraq's centre-backs. Sadio Mané — 34 years old, still dangerous — burst onto it and slotted low past Fahad Talib. The Senegalese contingent in the stands erupted.
Iraq tried to respond but their build-up was stifled by Senegal's high press. Zidane Iqbal, the most technically gifted player in the Iraqi squad, found himself constantly double-teamed by Lamine Camara and Pathé Ciss. Manaf Younis was booked on 34 minutes for a cynical foul on Mané as Iraq's frustration grew.
54' — JACKSON MAKES IT TWO. Ismaïla Sarr drove down the right flank and whipped in a low cross. Nicolas Jackson — who had been a constant menace in behind Iraq's high line — met it first time and guided the ball into the bottom corner. A striker's goal from Senegal's Bayern Munich forward.
Zidane Iqbal was booked on 61 minutes for a late challenge on Habib Diarra, effectively ending his influence on the game. Iraq's coach threw on Aymen Hussein and Marko Farji in search of a consolation, but Senegal's backline — marshalled superbly by Moussa Niakhaté and Mamadou Sarr — was rarely troubled.
78' — NDIAYE SEALS IT IN STYLE. Mané, dropping deep, played a delicious reverse pass into the path of Iliman Ndiaye. The Everton forward took one touch to set himself and curled a right-footed shot into the far corner. A goal worthy of any World Cup stage.
The final whistle confirmed a 3-0 victory and three points that put Senegal firmly in control of Group I. Iraq, making their first World Cup appearance in the expanded 48-team format, will need to regroup quickly. For Senegal, the Lions of Teranga look ready to hunt.