

Prediction vs Result
3.0/10Result went the other way.
The AI report
Reality diverged from the script. The model leaned towards Egypt (2–1), but it ended level 1–1 — 3.0/10 on the night.
On chances, the model penciled in 3 goals and the game delivered 2 — 1 fewer than projected.
Saber and Rezaeian found the net, none of whom the model had on its teamsheet of scorers.
Cards ran 4Y/1R on the model's read against 8Y/0R in reality — a quieter night for the referee than projected.
Full comparison
| Metric | AI Predicted | Actual |
|---|---|---|
| Scoreline | 2–1 | 1–1 |
| Result | Egypt win | Draw |
| Total goals | 3 | 2 |
| Scorers | Mohamed Salah, Mehdi Taremi, Omar Marmoush | Saber, Rezaeian |
| Yellow cards | 4 | 8 |
| Red cards | 1 | 0 |
| Possessionmodel only | 56%–44% | — |
| Shotsmodel only | 14–9 | — |
| Expected goals (xG)model only | 2.3–1.2 | — |
Score, scorers and cards are official; possession, shots and xG are the model’s projections (no official real counterpart).
Match Prediction
How the Model Sees It Unfold
- 16’
- 18’
- 38’
- 54’
- 62’
- 71’
- 76’
- 79’
Match Info
- Tournament
- FIFA World Cup 2026
- Stage
- Group Stage
- Date
- 27 Jun 2026
- Kick-off
- 03:00 (local)
- Stadium
- Lumen Field
- City
- Seattle
Pressing & Heat Zones
Egypt's activity concentrated in the right half-space and final third, with Salah and Marmoush driving central overloads
Iran compact in their own half, with transition bursts through Jahanbakhsh on the right and Taremi as a lone pivot
4-2-3-14-1-4-1
Egypt subs
Iran subs
Egypt's 4-2-3-1 was tailor-made to funnel the ball to Salah in pockets between Iran's defensive and midfield lines. With Emam Ashour suspended, coach Ihab Galal opted for the Fathy-Attia double pivot — a more defensive pairing that allowed Salah and Marmoush to press high and transition quickly. Iran's 4-1-4-1 was disciplined but overly passive in the first half, with Cheshmi as a lone screen in front of a back four that sat deep. The tactical shift at the break — Jahanbakhsh given license to overlap aggressively — yielded the equaliser but also opened space in behind that Egypt exploited for the winner. Khalilzadeh's red card was symptomatic of Iran's growing desperation; once reduced to ten men, their compact shape collapsed and Egypt's quality told.
- Mohamed Salah directly contributed to both Egypt goals — penalty conversion + assist — finishing with a match-high 5 key passes.
- Shojae Khalilzadeh's double yellow (16' foul, 79' professional foul) proved the decisive disciplinary moment of the match.
- Iran's xG of 1.18 was almost entirely generated after half-time, underlining their passive first-half approach.
- Omar Marmoush's goal was his 9th in his last 12 international appearances — a remarkable run of form.
- Egypt's 56% possession was their highest in a World Cup group-stage match since 2018.
- Taremi's equaliser was Iran's first World Cup goal since the 2022 Qatar tournament — a reminder of their attacking threat even in a losing cause.
Match Report
Under the grey Seattle skies at Lumen Field, Egypt edged out a hard-fought 2-1 victory over Iran in a Group G opener that had everything — a penalty controversy, a stunning equaliser, a red card, and a late winner from one of the tournament's most in-form attackers.
Egypt dominated the opening exchanges, with Mohamed Salah pulling the strings from a free-roaming No. 10 role. The breakthrough came in the 16th minute when Shojae Khalilzadeh lunged recklessly into Omar Marmoush inside the area — a clumsy challenge the referee had no hesitation in pointing to the spot. Salah, ice-cool as ever, sent Beiranvand the wrong way to make it 1-0.
Iran regrouped at half-time and came out with far more intent in the second period. Alireza Jahanbakhsh, lively on the right flank all afternoon, slipped a perfectly weighted through-ball into the channel for Mehdi Taremi, who took one touch and drilled a low finish past El Shenawy at his near post — a goal of real quality that silenced the Egyptian support in the stands.
The match turned again on 79 minutes when Khalilzadeh, already on a yellow, cynically hauled back Marmoush on the counter and received his second booking. Egypt, now with a man advantage, pressed forward immediately. Six minutes later, Salah — who had been Egypt's best player throughout — played a deft reverse pass into the feet of the surging Marmoush, who cut inside Kanaanizadegan and curled a composed finish into the far corner. 2-1, and this time there was no way back for the ten-man Iranians.
Egypt held firm through five minutes of stoppage time to claim a vital three points and establish themselves as early Group G pacesetters.
