Spain were the deserved winners of a tactically absorbing Round of 16 tie. Croatia's 4-1-4-1 deep block was well-organised and disciplined, limiting Spain to just three shots on target in the first half, but the structural problem was always the same: with Jakić as a lone pivot, Croatia lacked the numbers to press Spain's build-up, meaning Pedri and Rodri had acres of space to circulate the ball and probe. Spain's 62% possession figure understates their dominance in the final third — their 2.6 xG was built on high-quality, central-area chances rather than speculative long-range efforts. Yamal's goal was against the xG model (a tight-angle finish rated at 0.09 xG), but Olmo's winner was a high-probability chance (0.41 xG) that reflected Spain's ability to manufacture quality opportunities through patient build-up. Croatia's equaliser was a reminder of their counter-attacking threat — Modrić's vision and Kramarić's movement remain elite — but they simply couldn't sustain the intensity required to threaten a Spain side of this calibre for 90 minutes. The key tactical battle was in the half-spaces: Spain's inverted wingers (Yamal right, Williams left) constantly dragged Croatia's full-backs narrow, opening the wide channels for Porro and Cucurella to overlap. Croatia's wide midfielders (Vlašić and M. Pašalić) were caught between tracking the overlaps and staying compact, and Spain exploited those moments of indecision ruthlessly.

• Spain dominated possession (62%) and created 2.6 xG — their highest in the tournament so far.
• Lamine Yamal became the youngest player to score in a World Cup R16 at just 18 years old.
• Modrić, 40, played all 90 minutes — a masterclass in reading the game even at the death of his World Cup career.
• Croatia's 4-1-4-1 block held Spain to just 3 shots on target in the first half, making the Yamal goal feel against the run of play.
• Dani Olmo's 78th-minute winner was his 4th goal of the tournament, cementing his status as Spain's tournament MVP.
• Croatia's press completion rate dropped to 34% after the 60th minute as legs tired under Spain's relentless circulation.