MoroccoMbappé's clinical edge and France's superior squad depth should just outlast Morocco's disciplined, counter-punching block, but Regragui's side — battle-tested from 2022 — will make it a nervy rematch until Griezmann or Mbappé breaks the deadlock late.
Prediction vs Result
8.0/10Correct result, off on the scoreline.
The AI report
The model read the outcome but not the detail. It had France at 2–1, and France duly came through — though the real scoreline settled at 2–0, good for 8.0/10.
On chances, the model penciled in 3 goals and the game delivered 2 — 1 fewer than projected.
Mbappé and Dembélé found the net, and it correctly tipped Mbappé to score.
Cards ran 5Y/0R on the model's read against 1Y/0R in reality — a quieter night for the referee than projected.
Full comparison
| Metric | AI Predicted | Actual |
|---|---|---|
| Scoreline | 2–1 | 2–0 |
| Result | France win | France win |
| Total goals | 3 | 2 |
| Scorers | Kylian Mbappé, Ayoub El Kaabi, Marcus Thuram | Mbappé, Dembélé |
| Yellow cards | 5 | 1 |
| Red cards | 0 | 0 |
| Possessionmodel only | 58%–42% | — |
| Shotsmodel only | 21–11 | — |
| Expected goals (xG)model only | 2.6–1.2 | — |
Score, scorers and cards are official; possession, shots and xG are the model’s projections (no official real counterpart).
Match Prediction
How the Model Sees It Unfold
- 34’
- 41’
- 56’
- 78’
- 84’
- 103’
- 109’
- 115’
Match Info
- Tournament
- FIFA World Cup 2026
- Stage
- Quarter-final
- Date
- 09 Jul 2026
- Kick-off
- 20:00 (local)
- Stadium
- Gillette Stadium
- City
- Foxborough
Pressing & Heat Zones
France pressed high and concentrated attacks down the right with Dembélé and Mbappé
Morocco defended deep and broke through Hakimi's right-flank overlaps
4-3-34-3-3France's superior squad depth ultimately told in extra time. Deschamps' side controlled possession and territory but were repeatedly frustrated by Morocco's disciplined low block and Bounou's reflexes. Mbappé's clinical first-half finish from a Dembélé cutback looked decisive until Hakimi's overlapping run set up El Kaabi to level with 12 minutes left. With both teams tiring, France's bench made the difference: Olise's pinpoint delivery found Thuram unmarked at the back post in the 109th minute. Morocco pushed bodies forward late but France's centre-back pairing of Saliba and Upamecano held firm.
- Mbappé struck first but Morocco's high press dragged France to extra time
- El Kaabi's 78th-minute equaliser sparked a frantic finish in regulation
- Thuram's 109th-minute header settled it after a relentless French second period
- France won the xG battle 2.6–1.2 across 120 minutes
- Bounou kept Morocco alive with 6 saves before the decisive set-piece
Match Report
Under the lights at Gillette Stadium, France and Morocco produced a quarterfinal worthy of the occasion. France set the tone early, Dembélé and Olise probing the flanks, and on 34 minutes Mbappé swept home a low Dembélé cutback to break the deadlock. Morocco, fearless once more on the big stage, grew into the contest after the break, Ounahi and El Khannouss dictating the midfield tempo. The equaliser came on 78 minutes: Hakimi galloped down the right and clipped a cross that El Kaabi met decisively to silence the French. The closing stages of normal time were chaotic, Bounou denying Mbappé twice to force extra time. In the second period of extra time France's fresh legs proved telling — substitute Olise whipped in a free-kick and Thuram rose highest to head past Bounou on 109 minutes. Morocco threw everything forward but Maignan and a resolute French rearguard saw it out, sending Les Bleus into the semifinals.