SpainSpain will have the ball — they've conceded once all tournament and Merino keeps rescuing tight nights — but France don't need it: Mbappé has scored in every knockout round and Spain's high line is exactly the space he and Dembélé live in. A cagey 1–1 after ninety tips France's way in extra time, 2–1, just as the model's pre-tournament bracket called this exact semi-final.
Prediction vs Result
0.0/10Result went the other way.
The AI report
Reality diverged from the script. The model leaned towards France (2–1), but Spain won it 0–2 — 0.0/10 on the night.
On chances, the model penciled in 3 goals and the game delivered 2 — 1 fewer than projected.
Oyarzabal (pen) and Porro found the net, none of whom the model had on its teamsheet of scorers.
Cards ran 5Y/0R on the model's read against 3Y/0R in reality — a quieter night for the referee than projected.
Full comparison
| Metric | AI Predicted | Actual |
|---|---|---|
| Scoreline | 2–1 | 0–2 |
| Result | France win | Spain win |
| Total goals | 3 | 2 |
| Scorers | Kylian Mbappé, Mikel Oyarzabal, Ousmane Dembélé | Oyarzabal (pen), Porro |
| Yellow cards | 5 | 3 |
| Red cards | 0 | 0 |
| Possessionmodel only | 42%–58% | — |
| Shotsmodel only | 14–19 | — |
| Expected goals (xG)model only | 2.1–1.9 | — |
Score, scorers and cards are official; possession, shots and xG are the model’s projections (no official real counterpart).
Match Prediction
How the Model Sees It Unfold
- 23’
- 41’
- 56’
- 67’
- 78’
- 88’
- 104’
- 112’
Match Info
- Tournament
- FIFA World Cup 2026
- Stage
- Semi-final
- Date
- 14 Jul 2026
- Kick-off
- 19:00 (local)
- Stadium
- AT&T Stadium
- City
- Arlington
Pressing & Heat Zones
Counter-attacking, low-mid block with explosive transitions through Mbappé and Dembélé
High possession, sustained territorial control with overloads down the right via Yamal
4-3-34-3-3France subs
Spain subs
A classic tournament clash of styles: Spain's possession machine against France's lethal transition game. Spain controlled the ball and territory through Rodri, Pedri and Zubimendi, pinning France deep — but Deschamps' side were content to absorb and strike. Mbappé's 23rd-minute breakaway, set up by Dembélé, gave France the lead against the run of play. Spain pressed relentlessly and finally levelled when Yamal's cutback found Oyarzabal at the back post in the 78th. With the game heading toward penalties, Cherki's introduction tilted extra time, and his slipped pass let Dembélé curl home the winner on 104. Maignan's saves and the Saliba–Upamecano wall held firm through a frantic finish.
- Spain dominated possession (58%) but France's transitions carried sharper xG per shot
- Mbappé struck first on the counter; Oyarzabal forced extra time off a Yamal cutback
- Dembélé's 104th-minute winner decided a heavyweight semi-final
- France reach a third final in four World Cups despite being out-passed
Match Report
Under the closed roof at AT&T Stadium, Spain were the better side for long stretches — La Roja stroked the ball around with 91% accuracy and Lamine Yamal tormenting Théo Hernandez down the right. But France struck with ruthless efficiency. On 23 minutes Dembélé sprang the press and released Mbappé, who outpaced Cubarsí and finished low past Unai Simón. Spain laid siege after the break; Pedri and Baena probed, and the equaliser came on 78 when Yamal jinked to the byline and cut back for Oyarzabal to sweep home. Both sides traded blows late, Maignan denying Ferran Torres at the death to force extra time. In the 104th minute, substitute Rayan Cherki threaded Dembélé in behind, and the PSG man bent a left-footed finish into the far corner. Spain threw everyone forward but France held on to reach the final.