Match Prediction
How the Model Sees It Unfold
- 16’Cubas
- Mbappé⚽18’
- 37’⚽Almirón
- 44’Balbuena
- Koné55’
- Thuram · Dembélé⚽61’
- 72’Gómez
- Mbappé · Olise⚽84’
- 88’Sanabria
Match Info
- Tournament
- FIFA World Cup 2026
- Stage
- Round of 32
- Date
- 30 Jun 2026
- Kick-off
- 21:00 (local)
- Stadium
- MetLife Stadium
- City
- East Rutherford
Pressing & Heat Zones
France dominate in the final third, with Mbappé and Dembélé creating overloads on the flanks and Thuram anchoring the central attacking zone.
Paraguay sit deep in two compact banks of four, with Almirón and Sosa providing narrow wide-press corridors on the counter.
France subs
- 11Olise
- 12Barcola
- 18Zaïre-Emery
- 20Doué
- 24Cherki
- 15Konaté
- 1Samba
Paraguay subs
- 11Maurício
- 17Kaku
- 21Ávalos
- 20Ojeda
- 25Pitta
- 16Bobadilla
- 12O. Gill
France were the overwhelming pre-match favourites and largely justified that billing, though Paraguay's tactical discipline and Almirón's individual brilliance gave the tie a genuine 30-minute period of uncertainty. Deschamps' decision to play Koné and Kanté as a double pivot — compensating for Tchouaméni's absence — was vindicated; the pair won the midfield battle convincingly after the equaliser. The key tactical moment of the match was the half-time introduction of Olise, who stretched Paraguay's flat back four with his directness and crossing quality. Mbappé's brace confirmed his status as the tournament's standout player, while Thuram's headed goal highlighted France's aerial threat from wide deliveries — a weapon Paraguay had no answer for. Paraguay's exit is no disgrace: they were compact, dangerous on the break, and Almirón showed he still belongs at the highest level. But the class gap between a CONMEBOL qualifier and a World Cup contender proved too wide to bridge over 90 minutes.
- Mbappé has now scored in every knockout round appearance at this World Cup — 5 goals in 3 knockout matches.
- Almirón's equaliser was Paraguay's first goal against a top-10 ranked side in this tournament.
- France's xG of 2.71 vs Paraguay's 0.94 underlines the gulf in attacking quality.
- Thuram's header was his 4th goal of the tournament, making him France's joint-top scorer alongside Mbappé.
- Paraguay's 4-4-2 block held for 36 minutes before France's quality on the ball broke the structure.
- Olise's introduction at half-time was decisive: 1 assist and 1 key pass in 45 minutes as a substitute.
- France's 63% possession and 87% pass accuracy reflect their total control of the tempo after the equaliser.
- Kanté completed 7 ball recoveries — the most of any player on the pitch — reinforcing his role as the engine of this French side.